U.S. Army Spcs. Christopher McLaughlin, left, and Zachary Dechant, center, and U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. William Voorhies place munitions on a pile to prepare for a controlled detonation operation on a range near Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan, Sept. 30, 2013. Voorhies will attend disposal training at the end of his deployment. McLaughlin and Dechant are explosive ordnance disposal technicians with Combined Joint Task Force Paladin-East's 663rd Ordnance Company. DOD photo by Ed Drohan
Ending The War In Afghanistan -- Stephen Biddle, Foreign Affairs
How to Avoid Failure on the Installment Plan
International forces in Afghanistan are preparing to hand over responsibility for security to Afghan soldiers and police by the end of 2014. U.S. President Barack Obama has argued that battlefield successes since 2009 have enabled this transition and that with it, “this long war will come to a responsible end.” But the war will not end in 2014. The U.S. role may end, in whole or in part, but the war will continue -- and its ultimate outcome is very much in doubt.
Should current trends continue, U.S. combat troops are likely to leave behind a grinding stalemate between the Afghan government and the Taliban. The Afghan National Security Forces can probably sustain this deadlock, but only as long as the U.S. Congress pays the multibillion-dollar annual bills needed to keep them fighting. The war will thus become a contest in stamina between Congress and the Taliban. Unless Congress proves more patient than the Taliban leader Mullah Omar, funding for the ANSF will eventually shrink until Afghan forces can no longer hold their ground, and at that point, the country could easily descend into chaos.
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My Comment: A sobering analysis .... and one that is probably correct. Read it all.
